European journal of gastroenterology & hepatology · 2025
Epidemiology of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease -related liver diseases: 1990-2021 and projections to 2045.
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Kan Chengxia, Zhang Kexin, Hou Ningning, Zheng Tianpeng, Sheng Sufang, Li Xuan, Han Fang, Sun Xiaodong
Аннотация
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) poses a growing global health challenge. This study evaluates the global burden of MASLD-related liver diseases-including MASLD with cirrhosis (MASLD-C) and liver cancer due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (LC-MASH) from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2045.
METHODS AND RESULTS: Using updated Global Burden of Disease 2021 data, we assessed the prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for MASLD-C and LC-MASH globally. Trend analysis was conducted using average annual percentage changes and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model for forecasting. In 2021, MASLD-C had a prevalence of 1.27 billion and an incidence of 48.31 million; LC-MASH had 52 431 prevalent cases and 42 291 incident cases. Age-standardized prevalence rates rose from 12 084.69 to 15 017.46 per 100 000 for MASLD-C and from 0.40 to 0.66 for LC-MASH. MASLD-C accounted for 97 403 deaths and 2.67 million DALYs, while LC-MASH caused 40 925 deaths and 2.67 million DALYs. MASLD-C mortality slightly declined, while LC-MASH mortality rose. Middle SDI regions had the highest MASLD-C burden; high SDI regions showed the fastest LC-MASH growth. Forecasts suggest rising MASLD-C burden and LC-MASH incidence, despite declining LC-MASH age-standardized rates.
CONCLUSION: The increasing global burden of MASLD-C and LC-MASH underscores the urgent need for region-specific prevention and intervention strategies.
METHODS AND RESULTS: Using updated Global Burden of Disease 2021 data, we assessed the prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for MASLD-C and LC-MASH globally. Trend analysis was conducted using average annual percentage changes and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model for forecasting. In 2021, MASLD-C had a prevalence of 1.27 billion and an incidence of 48.31 million; LC-MASH had 52 431 prevalent cases and 42 291 incident cases. Age-standardized prevalence rates rose from 12 084.69 to 15 017.46 per 100 000 for MASLD-C and from 0.40 to 0.66 for LC-MASH. MASLD-C accounted for 97 403 deaths and 2.67 million DALYs, while LC-MASH caused 40 925 deaths and 2.67 million DALYs. MASLD-C mortality slightly declined, while LC-MASH mortality rose. Middle SDI regions had the highest MASLD-C burden; high SDI regions showed the fastest LC-MASH growth. Forecasts suggest rising MASLD-C burden and LC-MASH incidence, despite declining LC-MASH age-standardized rates.
CONCLUSION: The increasing global burden of MASLD-C and LC-MASH underscores the urgent need for region-specific prevention and intervention strategies.