Mortality trends of aortic stenosis in high-income countries from 2000 to 2020.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to describe recent mortality trends from aortic stenosis (AS) among eight high-income countries.

METHODS

We analysed the WHO mortality database to determine trends in mortality from AS in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Australia, the USA and Canada from 2000 to 2020. Crude and age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 persons were calculated. We calculated age-specific mortality rates in three groups (<64, 65-79 and ≥80 years). Annual percentage change was analysed using joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

During the observation period, the crude mortality rates per 100 000 persons increased in all the eight countries (from 3.47 to 5.87 in the UK, from 2.98 to 8.93 in Germany, from 3.84 to 5.52 in France, from 1.97 to 4.33 in Italy, from 1.12 to 5.49 in Japan, from 2.14 to 3.38 in Australia, from 3.58 to 4.22 in the USA and from 2.12 to 5.00 in Canada). In joinpoint regression of age-standardised mortality rates, trend changes towards a decrease were observed in Germany after 2012 (-1.2%, p=0.015), Australia after 2011 (-1.9%, p=0.005) and the USA after 2014 (-3.1%, p<0.001). Age-specific mortality rates in age group ≥80 years had shifts towards decreasing trends in all the eight countries in contrast to other younger age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

While crude mortality rates increased in the eight countries, shifts towards decreasing trends were identified in age-standardised mortality rates in three countries and in the elderly aged ≥80 years in the eight countries. Further multidimensional observation is warranted to clarify the mortality trends.