Clinical endocrinology · 2019
A novel clinical nomogram to predict bilateral hyperaldosteronism in Chinese patients with primary aldosteronism.
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Xiao Libin, Jiang Yiran, Zhang Cui, Jiang Lei, Zhou Weiwei, Su Tingwei, Ning Guang, Wang Weiqing
Аннотация
CONTEXT: Adrenal venous sampling (AVS) is recommended as the gold standard for subtype classification in primary aldosteronism (PA); however, this approach has limited availability.
OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop a novel clinical nomogram to predict PA subtype based on routine variables, thereby reducing the number of candidates for AVS.
PATIENTS AND METHOD: Patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 185) and a validation set (n = 79). Risk factors for idiopathic hyperaldosteronism (IHA) differentiating from aldosterone-producing adenoma (APA) were identified using logistic regression analysis. A nomogram was constructed to predict the probability of IHA. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and a calibration plot were applied to assess the predictive value. Then, 115 patients were prospectively enrolled, and a nomogram was used to predict the subtypes before AVS.
RESULTS: Body mass index (BMI), serum potassium and computed tomography (CT) finding were adopted in the nomogram. The nomogram presented an area under the ROC (AUC) of 0.924 (95% CI: 0.875-0.957), sensitivity of 86.59% and specificity of 87.38% in the training set and an AUC of 0.894 (95% CI: 0.804-0.952), sensitivity of 82.86% and specificity of 84.09% in the validation set. Predicted probability and actual probability matched well in the nomogram (Hosmer-Lemeshow test: P > 0.05). Using the nomogram as a surrogate to predict IHA in the prospective set before AVS, the specificity reached 100% when we increased the threshold to a probability of 90%.
CONCLUSION: We have developed a tool that is able to predict IHA in patients with PA and potentially avoid AVS.
OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop a novel clinical nomogram to predict PA subtype based on routine variables, thereby reducing the number of candidates for AVS.
PATIENTS AND METHOD: Patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 185) and a validation set (n = 79). Risk factors for idiopathic hyperaldosteronism (IHA) differentiating from aldosterone-producing adenoma (APA) were identified using logistic regression analysis. A nomogram was constructed to predict the probability of IHA. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and a calibration plot were applied to assess the predictive value. Then, 115 patients were prospectively enrolled, and a nomogram was used to predict the subtypes before AVS.
RESULTS: Body mass index (BMI), serum potassium and computed tomography (CT) finding were adopted in the nomogram. The nomogram presented an area under the ROC (AUC) of 0.924 (95% CI: 0.875-0.957), sensitivity of 86.59% and specificity of 87.38% in the training set and an AUC of 0.894 (95% CI: 0.804-0.952), sensitivity of 82.86% and specificity of 84.09% in the validation set. Predicted probability and actual probability matched well in the nomogram (Hosmer-Lemeshow test: P > 0.05). Using the nomogram as a surrogate to predict IHA in the prospective set before AVS, the specificity reached 100% when we increased the threshold to a probability of 90%.
CONCLUSION: We have developed a tool that is able to predict IHA in patients with PA and potentially avoid AVS.