Identification of risk factors and prediction models for secondary malignant neoplasms (SMNs)-free survival and SMNs-specific survival in testicular cancer survivors.

OBJECTIVE: This research endeavored to determine the key demographic and pathological factors tied to secondary malignant neoplasms (SMNs) in survivors of testicular cancer and to develop a predictive model.

METHOD: A total of 53,309 testicular cancer patients from the SEER national database (1975-2016) were included in our analysis. The primary outcome measured was SMNs-free survival, defined as the duration from testicular cancer diagnosis to the detection of a non-testicular malignancy. The secondary outcome was SMN-specific survival, defined as the period from testicular cancer diagnosis until the patient's death due to SMNs.

FINDINGS: Of the patients in the SEER cohort, 2978 (5.6%) developed non-testicular cancer SMNs. Higher age, receipt of chemotherapy, and radiation treatment were all significantly associated with the development of SMNs in survivors of testicular cancer (all p < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a worse SMNs-free survival and poor SMN-specific survival in patients who underwent radiation therapy (both p < 0.001). Multivariable Cox regression analysis found non-Hispanic Black ethnicity, higher age, chemotherapy, and radiation therapy to be significantly associated with worse SMNs-free survival (p = 0.002, p < 0.001, p < 0.001, and p < 0.001, respectively), while lymphoma histology was associated with better SMNs-free survival (p < 0.001). The most common SMN types in patients receiving radiation therapy were prostate, lung, and bladder cancers. Predictive nomograms for SMNs-free survival and SMNs-specific survival were developed, with a C-index of 0.776 and 0.824, respectively.

CONCLUSION: The age of diagnosis, non-Hispanic Black ethnicity, lymphoma histology, and treatment history with chemotherapy and radiation therapy were identified as prognostic factors for SMNs-free survival.