Do time preferences predict diabetes outcomes? A combined survey and register-based study.

Identifying determinants of heterogeneity in health outcomes continues to be a focus in the health economic literature. In this study, we analyze whether time preferences predict health outcomes in individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) who use insulin pump therapy to manage their condition. We collect data on time preferences using a hypothetical matching task and estimate aggregate as well as individual-level discounting parameters using the exponential, hyperbolic, and quasi-hyperbolic discounting models. These parameters are then regressed against essential diabetes-related health outcomes obtained from registries and medical records, including glycemic control, kidney function, BMI, and number of hospital contacts. Our analyses indicate that all three discounting models fit the data equally well. Except for hospital contacts, we find robust evidence that impatience, as reflected by higher discounting, predicts worse health outcomes. Additionally, present bias is associated with worse kidney function. Our findings suggest that time preferences can explain some of the heterogeneity in health among individuals with T1D and call for increased attention on the role of time preferences in the design of disease management programs for individuals with chronic conditions.