Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020
Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves.
СтатьяПоддержка исследования: вне правительства СШАНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Li Ruiyun, Chen Bin, Zhang Tao, Ren Zhehao, Song Yimeng, Xiao Yixiong, Hou Lin, Cai Jun, Xu Bo, Li Miao, Chan Karen Kie Yan, Tu Ying, Yang Mu, Yang Jing, Liu Zhaoyang, Shen Chong, Wang Che, Xu Lei, Liu Qiyong, Bao Shuming, Zhang Jianqin, Bi Yuhai, Bai Yuqi, Deng Ke, Zhang Wusheng, Huang Wenyu, Whittington Jason D, Stenseth Nils Chr, Guan Dabo, Gong Peng, Xu Bing
Аннотация
Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.