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DOI 10.1073/pnas.2012002117

Медицинская библиотека · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020

Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves.

Li Ruiyun, Chen Bin, Zhang Tao, Ren Zhehao, Song Yimeng, Xiao Yixiong, Hou Lin, Cai Jun, Xu Bo, Li Miao, Chan Karen Kie Yan, Tu Ying, Yang Mu, Yang Jing, Liu Zhaoyang, Shen Chong, Wang Che, Xu Lei, Liu Qiyong, Bao Shuming, Zhang Jianqin, Bi Yuhai, Bai Yuqi, Deng Ke, Zhang Wusheng, Huang Wenyu, Whittington Jason D, Stenseth Nils Chr, Guan Dabo, Gong Peng, Xu Bing

СтатьяПоддержка исследования: вне правительства СШАПеревод пока не подготовлен

Аннотация

Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.

Для цитирования: Li Ruiyun, Chen Bin, Zhang Tao, Ren Zhehao, Song Yimeng, Xiao Yixiong, Hou Lin, Cai Jun, Xu Bo, Li Miao, Chan Karen Kie Yan, Tu Ying, Yang Mu, Yang Jing, Liu Zhaoyang, Shen Chong, Wang Che, Xu Lei, Liu Qiyong, Bao Shuming, Zhang Jianqin, Bi Yuhai, Bai Yuqi, Deng Ke, Zhang Wusheng, Huang Wenyu, Whittington Jason D, Stenseth Nils Chr, Guan Dabo, Gong Peng, Xu Bing. Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves.. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2020. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2012002117.

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