Projecting the Macroeconomic Burden of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Attributable to High Body-Mass Index in Southeast Asia: A Bayesian Productivity-Adjusted Life Years Approach Based on Global Burden of Diseases 2023.

AIMS: This study aims to evaluate the health burden and macroeconomic impact of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) attributable to high body mass index (BMI) in Southeast Asia.

MATERIALS AND

METHODS

We analysed trends with Joinpoint regression and assessed health inequalities using slope and concentration index. We projected future burden with a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model. We then applied the Productivity-Adjusted Life Years framework to quantify productivity losses from deaths and disability, valuing the economic impact with projected GDP per capita.

RESULTS

The burden of high BMI-attributable T2DM increased significantly from 1990 to 2023 and is projected to continue rising. This translates into substantial productivity losses, with total PALYs lost projected to increase from 1.86 million in 2024 to 2.03 million in 2029. The corresponding economic losses were projected to rise from Intl$29.94 billion to Intl$38.44 billion. Males and the 50-64 age group bore a disproportionate burden, with Indonesia bearing the largest absolute economic impact.

CONCLUSION

High BMI-related T2DM causes a major and growing health and economic burden in Southeast Asia. Policymakers must urgently act to reduce obesity and limit its economic effects.