Predictive model and prognostic insights into duodenal stump fistula following radical gastrectomy with Roux-en-Y reconstruction for gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND

Duodenal stump fistula (DSF) is a rare yet serious complication following gastric cancer surgery. The risk factors associated with DSF, as well as the predictive models, remain insufficiently elucidated.

AIM: To identify DSF risk factors following radical gastrectomy with Roux-en-Y anastomosis, develop a predictive model, and evaluate impact on prognosis.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted on patients undergoing radical gastrectomy with Roux-en-Y anastomosis for gastric cancer at Juntendo University from 2015 to 2021 (n = 325). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the risk factors associated with DSF. Based on the independent risk factors, a predictive nomogram was developed and subsequently evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were utilized to assess the impact of DSF on overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and disease-free survival (DFS).

RESULTS

Among the 325 patients analyzed, DSF was observed in 7 (2.2%) cases. No DSF was observed in 110 patients where the duodenal stump suturing fixation technique to the jejunal wall was used. Multivariate analysis confirmed that age [odds ratio (OR) = 1.17, P = 0.015] and obstructive ventilatory failure (OVF) (OR = 14.03, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for DSF. The predictive nomogram was constructed based on age and OVF, which exhibited strong performance (area under the curve = 0.90, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-0.99). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a statistically significant reduction in CSS for patients with DSF, whereas no significant differences were observed in OS or DFS.

CONCLUSION

Age and OVF are independent risk factors for DSF, which worsens CSS. A nomogram predicts DSF accurately, and innovative surgical techniques may reduce its occurrence.