BMC gastroenterology · 2025
Age-period-cohort analysis of gallbladder and biliary diseases epidemiological trends from 1990 to 2021 and forecasts for 2035: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021.
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He Maolang, Gu Ruru, Huang Xin, Zhao Aifang, Liu Fang, Zheng Yong
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Gallbladder and biliary diseases (GABD) represent prevalent disorders of the digestive system.
METHODS: Data on age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was utilized to quantify temporal trends in GABD. Age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to determine the effects attributable to age, period, and birth cohort. Additionally, we projected global trends to 2035.
RESULTS: Globally, GABD incident cases, mortality cases, and DALYs increased by 60.11%, 71.71%, and 56.90%, respectively. However, all corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs) demonstrated overall downward trends with estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) of -0.32 (-0.38 to -0.26), -0.95 (-1.08 to -0.83), and - 0.69 (-0.74 to -0.65), respectively. The number of incident cases was higher in females than in males across all age groups. The age effect indicated that older individuals had higher age-specific incidence and death rates. Both period and cohort effects showed declining risk across incidence and mortality. The ASIR and ASMR of GABD are projected to continue decreasing over the next 15 years.
CONCLUSION: GABD continue to pose a significant global public health challenge, particularly affecting women and the elderly population. Consequently, the implementation of effective interventions to mitigate the GABD burden is of paramount importance.
METHODS: Data on age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was utilized to quantify temporal trends in GABD. Age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to determine the effects attributable to age, period, and birth cohort. Additionally, we projected global trends to 2035.
RESULTS: Globally, GABD incident cases, mortality cases, and DALYs increased by 60.11%, 71.71%, and 56.90%, respectively. However, all corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs) demonstrated overall downward trends with estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) of -0.32 (-0.38 to -0.26), -0.95 (-1.08 to -0.83), and - 0.69 (-0.74 to -0.65), respectively. The number of incident cases was higher in females than in males across all age groups. The age effect indicated that older individuals had higher age-specific incidence and death rates. Both period and cohort effects showed declining risk across incidence and mortality. The ASIR and ASMR of GABD are projected to continue decreasing over the next 15 years.
CONCLUSION: GABD continue to pose a significant global public health challenge, particularly affecting women and the elderly population. Consequently, the implementation of effective interventions to mitigate the GABD burden is of paramount importance.