Relations among affect, abstinence motivation and confidence, and daily smoking lapse risk.

This study tested the hypothesis that changes in momentary affect, abstinence motivation, and confidence would predict lapse risk over the next 12-24 hr using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) data from smokers attempting to quit smoking. One hundred and three adult, daily, treatment-seeking smokers recorded their momentary affect, motivation to quit, abstinence confidence, and smoking behaviors in near real time with multiple EMA reports per day using electronic diaries postquit. Multilevel models indicated that initial levels of negative affect were associated with smoking, even after controlling for earlier smoking status, and that short-term increases in negative affect predicted lapses up to 12, but not 24, hr later. Positive affect had significant effects on subsequent abstinence confidence, but not motivation to quit. High levels of motivation appeared to reduce increases in lapse risk that occur over hours although momentary changes in confidence did not predict lapse risk over 12 hr. Negative affect had short-lived effects on lapse risk, whereas higher levels of motivation protected against the risk of lapsing that accumulates over hours. An increase in positive affect was associated with greater confidence to quit, but such changes in confidence did not reduce short-term lapse risk, contrary to expectations. Relations observed among affect, cognitions, and lapse seem to depend critically on the timing of assessments.