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DOI 10.1055/s-0033-1344884

Медицинская библиотека · Endoscopy · 2013

Reassessment of the predictive value of the Forrest classification for peptic ulcer rebleeding and mortality: can classification be simplified?

de Groot Nicolette L, van Oijen Martijn G H, Kessels Koen, Hemmink Maarten, Weusten Bas L A M, Timmer Robin, Hazen Wouter L, van Lelyveld Niels, Vermeijden Reinoud R, Curvers Wouter L, Baak Bert C, Verburg Robert, Bosman Joukje H, de Wijkerslooth Laetitia R H, de Rooij Janne, Venneman Niels G, Pennings Marieke, van Hee Koen, Scheffer Bob C H, van Eijk Rachel L, Meiland Ruby, Siersema Peter D, Bredenoord Albert J

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Аннотация

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: This study aimed to reassess whether the Forrest classification is still useful for the prediction of rebleeding and mortality in peptic ulcer bleedings and, based on this, whether the classification could be simplified.

PATIENTS AND

METHODS

Prospective registry data on peptic ulcer bleedings were collected and categorized according to the Forrest classification. The primary outcomes were 30-day rebleeding and all-cause mortality rates. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to test whether simplification of the Forrest classification into high risk (Forrest Ia), increased risk (Forrest Ib-IIc), and low risk (Forrest III) classes could be an alternative to the original classification.

RESULTS

In total, 397 patients were included, with 18 bleedings (4.5%) being classified as Forrest Ia, 73 (18.4%) as Forrest Ib, 86 (21.7%) as Forrest IIa, 32 (8.1%) as Forrest IIb, 59 (14.9%) as Forrest IIc, and 129 (32.5%) as Forrest III. Rebleeding occurred in 74 patients (18.6%). Rebleeding rates were highest in Forrest Ia peptic ulcers (59%). The odds ratios for rebleeding among Forrest Ib-IIc ulcers were similar. In subgroup analysis, predicting rebleeding using the Forrest classification was more reliable for gastric ulcers than for duodenal ulcers. The simplified Forrest classification had similar test characteristics to the original Forrest classification.

CONCLUSION

The Forrest classification still has predictive value for rebleeding of peptic ulcers, especially for gastric ulcers; however, it does not predict mortality. Based on these results, a simplified Forrest classification is proposed. However, further studies are needed to validate these findings.

Для цитирования: de Groot Nicolette L, van Oijen Martijn G H, Kessels Koen, Hemmink Maarten, Weusten Bas L A M, Timmer Robin, Hazen Wouter L, van Lelyveld Niels, Vermeijden Reinoud R, Curvers Wouter L, Baak Bert C, Verburg Robert, Bosman Joukje H, de Wijkerslooth Laetitia R H, de Rooij Janne, Venneman Niels G, Pennings Marieke, van Hee Koen, Scheffer Bob C H, van Eijk Rachel L, Meiland Ruby, Siersema Peter D, Bredenoord Albert J. Reassessment of the predictive value of the Forrest classification for peptic ulcer rebleeding and mortality: can classification be simplified?. Endoscopy. 2013. DOI: 10.1055/s-0033-1344884.

Предметные рубрики MeSH

AgedAged, 80 and overArea Under CurveDuodenal UlcerFemaleHemostasis, EndoscopicHumansMaleMiddle AgedPeptic Ulcer HemorrhagePredictive Value of TestsProspective StudiesROC CurveRecurrenceRisk AssessmentStomach Ulcer
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