International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2025
Maximizing oral intake tolerance in malignant gastric outlet obstruction - a Markov decision tree analysis comparing duodenal stenting, endoscopic ultrasound-guided gastroenterostomy and surgical gastrojejunostomy based on a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.
Сравнительное исследованиеСтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
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Chue Koy Min, Douglass Benjamin Robert, Ong Lester Wei Lin, Tan Jeremy Tian Hui, Teh Jonathan Guo Xiang, Putera Martin, Kwan Clarence Kah Wai, Wong Wai Keong, Yeung Baldwin Po Man
Аннотация
INTRODUCTION: Malignant gastric outlet obstruction (GOO) has a significant impact on quality of life. Endoscopic ultrasound-guided gastroenterostomy (EUS-GE) has shown promising results. Traditional isolated outcome measures do not sufficiently address critical considerations for end-of-life patients like oral intake tolerance. This study aimed to determine via a probabilistic approach, the optimal management strategy for GOO patients that maximizes their oral intake tolerance.
METHODS: A Markov decision model was developed, with input variables based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCT) comparing duodenal stenting (DS), EUS-GE and surgical gastrojejunostomy (GJ). A prospective cohort study with a comparator group was also included for EUS-GE model given the scarcity of RCTs. Model assumption was a patient with malignant GOO, with equal probabilities of being allocated to 1 of 3 treatment options. Each data point was evaluated using pooled probabilities from the meta-analysis of clinical outcomes. Primary outcome was successful oral intake tolerance at various time points of 1-6 months post-intervention.
RESULTS: Fifteen studies were included into the Markov model. Based on 10 000 simulations in each arm, at a survival of 1-month, DS and EUS-GE had the highest likelihood of oral intake (81.2% and 80.4%) compared to GJ (75.5%). However, at a survival of 6-month, EUS-GE and GJ were better at palliating GOO, with likelihood of oral intake at 23.8% and 25.2%, compared to 21.3% for DS.
CONCLUSION: For patients with a prognosis of more than 1-month, a surgical GJ, or EUS-GE if technical expertise is available, is preferred for GOO palliation.
METHODS: A Markov decision model was developed, with input variables based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCT) comparing duodenal stenting (DS), EUS-GE and surgical gastrojejunostomy (GJ). A prospective cohort study with a comparator group was also included for EUS-GE model given the scarcity of RCTs. Model assumption was a patient with malignant GOO, with equal probabilities of being allocated to 1 of 3 treatment options. Each data point was evaluated using pooled probabilities from the meta-analysis of clinical outcomes. Primary outcome was successful oral intake tolerance at various time points of 1-6 months post-intervention.
RESULTS: Fifteen studies were included into the Markov model. Based on 10 000 simulations in each arm, at a survival of 1-month, DS and EUS-GE had the highest likelihood of oral intake (81.2% and 80.4%) compared to GJ (75.5%). However, at a survival of 6-month, EUS-GE and GJ were better at palliating GOO, with likelihood of oral intake at 23.8% and 25.2%, compared to 21.3% for DS.
CONCLUSION: For patients with a prognosis of more than 1-month, a surgical GJ, or EUS-GE if technical expertise is available, is preferred for GOO palliation.