Risk factors related to liver metastasis in colorectal carcinoma: a multivariate analysis of clinicopathologic and immunohistochemical variables.

Specimens from 48 consecutive patients undergoing surgery for colorectal carcinoma and having synchronous or metachronous liver metastases (Group 1) and those from 52 consecutive patients who had no evidence of hepatic metastases within at least 5 year after colorectal resection (Group 2) were selected and compared using a multiple logistic regression analysis. A multivariate analysis using a stepwise logistic regression revealed six independent risk factors significantly related to hepatic metastases. In addition, the following logistic regression model was obtained from this analysis. P = exp a/(1 + exp a): a = 3.524(SM-V) + 2.731(Ex-V) + 2.718(E/M) + 2.562(Lo) + 1.858(p53) + 1.941(HIR) - 4.397, where P is the probability of hepatic metastasis given six independent risk factors (E/M, Ex/M ratio; Lo, location; HIR, host inflammatory cell reaction). When the estimated probability "P" in the above logistic regression model is more than 0.55 after an examination of surgical specimens, we must consider adjuvant chemotherapy and closely monitor the patient to ensure early detection of hepatic metastases.