Prognostic Factors and Recurrence in Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma.

Background and

Objectives

Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is generally indolent; however, a subset exhibits aggressive features, reflecting biological heterogeneity. In the era of treatment de-escalation and active surveillance, accurate risk stratification is essential. We aimed to evaluate recurrence, identify factors associated with recurrence, determine predictors of lymph node metastasis (LNM) at diagnosis, and assess management strategies at our center. Materials and

Methods

This retrospective study included 302 patients with PTMC. Associations between clinicopathological variables and outcomes were evaluated using chi-square test, Spearman correlation, and univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.

Results

The cohort included 240 females (79.5%) and 62 males (20.5%), with a median age of 47 years. Total thyroidectomy was performed in 97.7%, and radioactive iodine (RAI) in 64.2%. LNM was identified in 26 patients (8.6%). Recurrence occurred in 4 patients (1.3%), and 98.0% were alive at last follow-up. Recurrence was associated with LNM at diagnosis, higher ATA risk categories, and positive surgical margins (p < 0.005). Younger age, larger tumor size, and vascular invasion independently predicted LNM (all p < 0.05), while autoimmune thyroiditis was associated with a reduced risk (p = 0.020).

Conclusions

PTMC demonstrates clinically relevant heterogeneity, particularly in patients with LNM. However, given the limited number of recurrence events, recurrence-related findings should be interpreted cautiously and considered exploratory. These findings support risk-adapted management and careful patient selection in the era of treatment de-escalation.