The causation-prevention chain in infrastructure safety measures: A consideration of four types of policy lock-ins.

Safety policies typically follow Lasswell's linear decision cycle paradigm: diagnostics, prescription, application, monitoring, and appraisal. Contemporary policy research highlights the existence of complexities in policy-making, which trigger policy lock-ins. We consider four cases in which the complex nature of the causation-prevention discourse leads to decision-making lock-ins, which deter safety progress. The four cases are conflicting narratives, missing causation inferences, prevention and mobility mismatch, and a tension between policy transfer and existing policy environments. The cases are demonstrated on recent examples of infrastructure measures that were observed in Israeli practice, which are, respectively: adding a motorway illumination, setting bus priority routes, safety improvements of multi-lane urban roads, and establishing traffic calming areas. While the four case-studies are region-specific, the discussion is relevant to other road safety measures and countries with similar policy-making problems. The consideration highlights the importance of policy-making dynamics to increase the resilience of the Safe System approach.