Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict the Risk of Special Uterine Leiomyoma Pathological Types or Leiomyosarcoma in Postmenopausal Women: A Retrospective Study.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to investigate the risk factors of postmenopausal special uterine leiomyoma pathological types or leiomyosarcoma and to develop a nomogram for clinical risk assessment, ultimately to reduce unnecessary surgical interventions and corresponding economic expenses.

METHODS

A total of 707 patients with complete information were enrolled from 1 August 2012 to 1 August 2022. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to analyse the association between variables and special uterine leiomyoma pathological types or leiomyosarcoma in postmenopausal patients. A nomogram for special uterine leiomyoma pathological types or leiomyosarcoma in postmenopausal patients was developed and validated by bootstrap resampling. The calibration curve was used to assess the accuracy of the model and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were compared with the clinical experience model.

RESULTS

The increasing trend after menopause, the diameter of the largest uterine fibroid, serum carcinoembryonic antigen 125 concentration, Serum neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, and Serum phosphorus ion concentration were independent risk factors for special uterine leiomyoma pathological types or leiomyosarcoma in postmenopausal patients. We developed a user-friendly nomogram which showed good diagnostic performance (AUC=0.724). The model was consistent and the calibration curve of our cohort was close to the ideal diagonal line. DCA indicated that the model has potential value for clinical application. Furthermore, our model was superior to the previous clinical experience model in terms of ROC and DCA.

CONCLUSION

We have developed a prediction nomogram for special uterine leiomyoma pathological types or leiomyosarcoma in postmenopausal patients. This nomogram could serve as an important warning signal and evaluation method for special uterine leiomyoma pathological types or leiomyosarcoma in postmenopausal patients.