Prediction of new onset of diabetes mellitus during a 10-year period by using a combination of levels of alanine aminotransferase and γ-glutamyl transferase.

Levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and γ-glutamyl transferase (GGT) have been reported to be associated with increased risk of diabetes mellitus (DM). However, whether a combination of levels of ALT and GGT predicts new onset of DM better than does ALT or GGT alone in both males and females has not fully been addressed. We investigated the relationship between the combination of ALT and GGT and DM development during a 10-year follow-up period in 13,919 subjects (male/female: 8,983/4,936; age 48 ± 10 years) who received health examinations. During the 10-year period, 617 males (6.9%) and 153 females (3.1%) had new onset of DM. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models with a restricted cubic spline showed that hazard ratios (HRs) of DM development increased with higher levels of ALT and GGT at baseline in both sexes after adjustment of confounding factors. When divided into 4 subgroups of high (H-) and low (L-) levels of ALT (male/female: 27/21 U/L) and GGT (male/female: 43/23 U/L) using cutoff values shown by receiver operating characteristic curve analyses, the adjusted HR in the H-ALT/H-GGT group was significantly higher than HR in the L-ALT/L-GGT group as the reference in males (HR [95% confidence interval]: 1.73[1.36-2.20], p < 0.001) but was not significantly higher in females (1.50 [0.97-2.33], p = 0.065). The addition of the combination of H-ALT/H-GGT to traditional risk factors with and without H-ALT or H-GGT alone significantly improved the discriminatory capability for predicting development of DM. In conclusion, the combination of H-ALT/H-GGT efficiently predicts development of DM in male individuals but not significantly in female individuals.