Conditional Survival in Uveal Melanoma.

PURPOSE: To investigate conditional survival in patients with uveal melanoma in the United States.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients were identified using International Classification of Disease for Oncology, Third Edition, codes for both morphologic features (melanoma, 8720-8790) and site (retina, C69.2; choroid, C69.3; and ciliary body, C69.4) from 1975 through 2011 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database SEER 18.

METHODS

Observed metastasis-free survival (MFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Conditional metastasis-free survival (cMFS) and conditional overall survival were calculated based on the observed MFS and OS. Relative survival also was calculated using the actuarial method. Survival to 5 and 10 years after diagnosis were calculated, conditioned on various numbers of years already survived.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Conditional MFS, conditional OS, and conditional relative survival.

RESULTS

A total of 6863 cases of uveal melanoma were identified. Median follow-up among survivors was 11 years. During follow-up, 3883 patients died of any cause, and of these, 2131 deaths were the result of metastatic uveal melanoma. The nonconditional 5-year MFS was 80%. After surviving 1, 2, 3, or 4 years after diagnosis, the 5-year cMFS estimates increased to 82%, 87%, 92%, and 96%, respectively. The nonconditional MFS at 10 years was estimated to be 69%. After having survived 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 years after diagnosis, the 10-year cMFS estimates increased to 87%, 90%, 93%, 96%, and 98%, respectively. This result pattern was confirmed with estimates of relative survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Conditional survival estimates of uveal melanoma improve with time since primary diagnosis. Among patients who already have survived for at least 5 years, 10-year conditional survival rates are high. Conditional survival analysis can provide specific guidance for counselling patients.