The potential geographical distribution of the Old World screw-worm fly, Chrysomya bezziana.

The potential geographical distribution and relative abundance of the Old World screw-worm fly, Chrysomya bezziana Villeneuve (Diptera: Calliphoridae) as determined by climate, was assessed using CLIMEX, a computer program for matching climates. CLIMEX describes the relative growth and persistence of animal populations in relation to climate. The observed global distribution of C.bezziana was compared with the potential distribution predicted by CLIMEX. The differences in the two distributions indicate the areas at risk of colonization, with particular reference to Australia and the Americas. According to the model, the potential area of permanent colonization in Australia extends south to the mid-coast of New South Wales. Comparison of areas suitable for permanent establishment with the potential summer distribution indicates that large additional areas, carrying most of the continent's livestock, could be colonized in the summer months. Seasonal population growth indices are presented for three ports in Australia at which screw-worm fly specimens have been collected by quarantine authorities. They indicate the relative risk associated with introductions at different places in different seasons and so provide valuable planning information for quarantine authorities. The CLIMEX predictions for C.bezziana in North America are shown to be similar to the recorded distribution limits of the New World screw-worm fly, Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel). The fly could also colonize South America, as far south as southern Brazil and midway through Argentina.