The influence of seasonal temperatures on the natural regulation of the screwworm, Cochliomyia hominivorax, in the southern U.S.A.

The incidence of screwworm cases in Texas during the 1962-82 sterile-male eradication campaign is analysed in relation to seasonal temperatures and screwworm density. The analysis shows that screwworm outbreaks occur in response to favourable seasonal conditions, especially warm winters and cool summers. The outbreaks collapse following cold winters and hot summers. Screwworm density in autumn also influences rates of increase, possibly through a shortage of wounded hosts in the autumn-winter period. The analysis provides a simple predictive model which not only accounts for the fluctuations in case incidence seen in Texas during the eradication campaign, which others have attributed to strain problems and release methods, but also simulates the historical pattern of screwworm abundance in both Texas and Florida over the last 100 years. It is concluded that screwworm, being essentially a tropical species, might well have been eradicated from the southern U.S.A. by exceptionally unfavourable climate such as occurred in Florida in 1958 and in Texas in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Certainly, unfavourable climate must have been important to the success of the eradication campaigns.