Modelling and Simulation of the Effect of Targeted Decolonisation on Incidence of Extended-Spectrum Beta-Lactamase-Producing Enterobacterales Bloodstream Infections in Haematological Patients.

INTRODUCTION

Haematological patients are at higher risk of bloodstream infections (BSI) after chemotherapy. The aim of this study was to develop a simulation model assessing the impact of selective digestive decontamination (SDD) of haematological patients colonised with extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacterales (ESBL-E) on the incidence of ESBL-E BSI after chemotherapy.

METHODS

A patient population was created by a stochastic simulation model mimicking the patients' states of colonisation with ESBL-E during hospitalisation. A systematic literature search was performed to inform the model. All ESBL-E carriers were randomised (1:1) to either the intervention (targeted SDD) or the control group (placebo). ESBL-E BSI incidence was the outcome of the model. Sensitivity analyses were performed by prevalence of ESBL-E carriage at hospital admission (low: < 10%, medium: 10-25%, high: > 25%), duration of neutropenia after receiving chemotherapy, administration of antibiotic prophylaxis with quinolones, and time interval between SDD and chemotherapy.

RESULTS

The model estimated that the administration of targeted SDD before chemotherapy reduces the incidence of ESBL-E BSI in the hospitalised haematological population up to 27%. The greatest benefit was estimated in high-prevalence settings, regardless of the duration of neutropenia, the time interval before chemotherapy, and the administration of antibiotic prophylaxis with quinolones (p < 0.05). In medium-prevalence settings, SDD was effective in patients receiving quinolone prophylaxis, with either 1-day time interval before chemotherapy and a neutropenia duration > 6 days (p < 0.05) or 7-day time interval before chemotherapy and a neutropenia duration > 9 days (p < 0.05). No benefit was observed in low-prevalence settings.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model suggests that targeted SDD could decrease the rate of ESBL-E BSI in haematological carriers before chemotherapy in the setting of high ESBL-E prevalence at hospital admission. These estimates require confirmation by well-designed multicentre RCTs, including the assessment of the impact on resistance/disruption patterns of gut microbiome.