Global burden and trends projection of edentulism and severe tooth loss among older adults based on the Global Burden of Disease database.

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a replicable, data-driven framework leveraging publicly available Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data and time-series modeling to forecast population-level trends in edentulism and severe tooth loss among adults aged ≥ 60 years, thereby providing support for clinicians and policymakers in predicting care needs, proactively allocating resources, and designing evidence-based prevention strategies.

METHOD AND MATERIALS: A secondary analysis of GBD 2021 data (1990-2021) was conducted, extracting sex-disaggregated, age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates globally. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for 19-year projections; stationarity testing, AIC/BIC optimization, and Ljung-Box tests validated model fit.

RESULTS

The study revealed a decline in global edentulism and tooth loss rates between 1990 and 2021, with lower rates in men than in women; Europe had the highest burdens, whereas Africa and South Asia had lower rates, linked to the Social Deprivation Index, and projections suggest continued reductions due to economic growth and health awareness.

CONCLUSION

Significant disparities in the burden of edentulism and severe tooth loss were observed across genders and geographic regions. It can be concluded that combining publicly available GBD data with ARIMA modeling can provide forward-looking benchmarks for oral public health at national, regional, and global levels.