Mendelian randomization and AlphaFold3 analysis suggest putative causal plasma proteins in graves' disease.

Graves' disease (GD) is a common autoimmune disorder. However, the circulating proteins that causally drive its pathogenesis remain largely unconfirmed by genetic evidence. Identifying such proteins is critical for developing novel therapeutics.

Methods

We performed a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using genetic instruments for 4907 plasma proteins and summary statistics from a GD genome-wide association study (GWAS) of European ancestry to identify causal proteins. We subsequently conducted protein-protein interaction (PPI) network analysis and used AlphaFold3 to model the structural impact of a key variant, rs41271951, in the top candidate protein, cathepsin S (CTSS).

Results

MR analysis identified 23 plasma proteins with putative causal effects on GD risk. Among these, CD5L showed the strongest evidence for colocalization (posterior [Formula: see text]), suggesting a shared causal variant. Network analysis revealed that these proteins converge on a novel complement-ECM-coagulation axis in GD pathogenesis. CTSS emerged as a central hub in this network. AlphaFold3 modeling suggested that the CTSS variant rs41271951 (p.Val7Ala), located within the signal peptide, induces subtle structural perturbations. The primary and most plausible consequence is a reduction in CTSS secretion and circulating levels, as supported by the pQTL data.

Conclusion

This multi-omics analysis proposes a novel complement-ECM-coagulation axis in GD. By structurally and functionally linking reduced CTSS abundance and secretion to genetic variation, we identify CTSS as a potential candidate for therapeutic repurposing in GD.