[Novel Scale for Long-Term Prognostication of Risk of Death and Nonfatal Cardiovascular Complications in Patients From the PROGNOSIS-IHD Registry].

PURPOSE: To elaborate a risk score for prognostication of long-term survival of patients with chronic ischemic heart disease (CIHD) using data of the PROGNOSIS-IHD Registry.

MATERIAL AND

METHODS

Participants of the PROGNOSIS-IHD Registry (n=641, 500 men, 141 women) were inhabitants of Moscow region consecutively admitted for planned hospitalization with diagnosis of IHD to the clinic of the Center of Preventive Medicine from 01.01.2004 to 31.12.2007. During hospitalization all patients underwent coronary angiography. Diagnosis of IHD was not confirmed in 100 of 641 patients. In 2010 vital status was determined in 551 patients (86%). Mean duration of observation was 3.9 years. Uni- and multi-factorial analysis was used for assessment of prognostic value of clinical-anamnestic and instrumental parameters.

RESULTS

The following parameters which were included into the risk score were most significant for prediction of occurrence of a primary end point (fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular complications [CVC]): feeling of shortness of breath (relative risk [RR] 1.86 and 1 point in risk score); history of unstable IHD course (acute coronary syndrome, myocardial infarction, unstable angina) (RR 1.76 and 1 point); need in diuretics before hospitalization (RR 1.92 and 1 point); stenosis of a cardiac valve (RR 2.95 and 2 points); zones of abnormal contractility of left ventricular myocardium at echocardiography (RR 2 and 1 point). Risk of death and nonfatal CVC in patients with suspected IHD was considered very low, low, medium, and high at score values 0, 1 (RR 1.6), 2 (RR 2.4), and more or equal 3 (RR 6.1), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Novel scale has high prognostic significance relative to stratification of risk of death and nonfatal CVC in patients with suspected CIHD and can be used in wide clinical practice because of its informativeness, simplicity, and accessibility.