Liver cirrhosis stages and the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving antiviral therapy.

OBJECTIVES: Long-term antiviral therapy decreases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), however, it cannot eliminate the risk. We investigated the incidence of HCC at different stages of liver cirrhosis (LC) and identified clinical predictors for HCC development during antiviral therapy.

METHODS: The data from 356 treatment-naïve patients aged 40 to 69 years without a history of HCC who had received entecavir for ≥6 months were collected retrospectively. The incidence of HCC was evaluated in patients with CHB only, with LC without varices (stage 1), with varices (stage 2), and with ascites (stage 3).

RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 3.6 years. In total, 45 patients (12.6%) developed HCC. The annual incidence rates of HCC in patients with CHB only or LC in stages 1, 2, and 3 were 0.4%, 2.6%, 9.8%, and 6.7%, respectively. In multivariate analyzes, LC at stage 2 (hazard ratio [HR] 17.16, 95% confidence interval [C.I.] 3.93-75.01, p < .001), alcohol consumption (HR 3.84, 95% C.I. 1.99-7.39, p < .001), and older age (HR 1.06, 95% C.I. 1.01-1.11, p = .010) were significantly associated with HCC development. The risk decreased in those who stopped drinking after 2 years of abstinence (p = .0314).

CONCLUSIONS: LC with significant portal hypertension (varices or ascites), alcohol consumption, and older age at the time of starting antiviral therapy are independent predictors for future HCC development.