Analysis of the Risk Factors of Breast Cancer-Related Lymphedema and Construction and Evaluation of a Prediction Model.

Objective

The occurrence of breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL) in postoperative breast cancer survivors is described and the independent risk factors of BCRL are analyzed. A BCRL nomogram prediction model is constructed, and its effectiveness is evaluated to screen out high-risk patients with BCRL.

Methods

A univariate analysis was carried out to determine the risk factors possibly related to BCRL, and a logistic regression analysis was utilized to determine the independent risk factors related to BCRL. A BCRL nomogram prediction model was built, and a nomogram was drawn by R software v4.1.0. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the efficacy of the constructed model to assess its clinical application value.

Results

The risk factors independently associated with BCRL were body mass index (BMI), handedness on the operation side, no BCRL-related rehabilitation plan, axillary lymph node dissection (ALND), taxane-based chemotherapy, and radiotherapy (all p < 0.05). The BCRL nomogram prediction model was built on this basis, and the results of the efficacy evaluation showed a good fit: AUC = 0.952 (95% confidence interval: 0.930-0.973) for the ROC and χ2 = 6.963, p = 0.540 for the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

Conclusions

The risk factors for BCRL included higher BMI, handedness on the operation side, no BCRL-related rehabilitation plan, ALND, taxane-based chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. In addition, the BCRL nomogram prediction model accurately calculated the risk of possible BCRL among breast cancer survivors and effectively screened for high-risk patients with BCRL. Therefore, this prediction model can provide a basis for rehabilitation physicians and therapists to formulate early and individualized prevention and treatment programs.