Factors influencing survival in patients undergoing palliative bypass for pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to identify factors predictive of early mortality following palliative bypass in patients with previously unsuspected advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma to provide a basis for the selection of appropriate therapies.

METHODS: All patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma who underwent a bypass procedure at our institution between 9/30/1994 and 1/31/2006 were reviewed. Patients with peri-operative mortality were excluded from the analysis. Univariate analysis was performed on peri-operative data to identify factors associated with early mortality (death within 6 months of surgery). Patients having multiple risk factors were assigned an overall prognostic score based on the sum of these factors.

RESULTS: Of the 397 patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma analyzed, four factors were found to predict early mortality following palliative bypass: Presence of distant metastatic disease (HR 2.59, P < 0.0001), poor tumor differentiation (HR 1.71, P = 0.009), severe pre-operative nausea and vomiting (HR 1.48, P = 0.013), and lack of previous placement of a biliary stent (HR 1.36, P = 0.048). Patients with a prognostic score of 0 were significantly more likely to survive past 6 months than patients with a prognostic score of 1 (HR 2.71, P < 0.0001), 2 (HR 3.70, P < 0.0001), or ≥3 (HR 5.63, P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort of patients undergoing a palliative bypass procedure, specific peri-operative factors can be used to identify patients who are at risk of early mortality. These factors may be helpful in selecting appropriate interventions for this group of patients.