Diabetes research and clinical practice · 2026
Prediabetes in Ontario: improving surveillance for better disease prevention.
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Shah Noor-Ul-Huda, Gushue Sharon, Wang Wendy, Young Stephanie W, Shah Baiju R, Lipscombe Lorraine, Fazli Ghazal S
Аннотация
AIMS: Prediabetes, a metabolic state preceding type 2 diabetes (T2D), is independently associated with increased all-cause mortality. Despite its growing public health significance, population-level estimates of prediabetes burden remain limited. We examined temporal trends in the incidence and prevalence of prediabetes in Ontario, stratified by age, sex, and key sociodemographic factors.
METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used data from the Ontario Laboratories Information System (2015-2024). Prediabetes was defined using laboratory criteria: glycated hemoglobin 6.0% and 6.4%, or impaired glucose tolerance (2-hour glucose of 7.8-11.0 mmol/L after a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test), or impaired fasting glucose (6.1-6.9 mmol/L). Analyses included individuals aged 20-105 years with valid glucose testing and excluded results in the diabetes range.
RESULTS: Age-standardized incidence increased by 20% from 15.2 per 1,000 persons in 2015 to 18.2 per 1,000 in 2024, while prevalence increased by 25% from 11% in 2015 to 14% in 2024. These increases were observed in both sexes. Incidence and prevalence were higher in socioeconomically disadvantaged and urban communities.
CONCLUSIONS: Prediabetes incidence and prevalence increased substantially in Ontario between 2015 and 2024, with a disproportionate burden in lower socioeconomic and urban communities, underscoring the need for targeted prevention and screening strategies.
METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used data from the Ontario Laboratories Information System (2015-2024). Prediabetes was defined using laboratory criteria: glycated hemoglobin 6.0% and 6.4%, or impaired glucose tolerance (2-hour glucose of 7.8-11.0 mmol/L after a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test), or impaired fasting glucose (6.1-6.9 mmol/L). Analyses included individuals aged 20-105 years with valid glucose testing and excluded results in the diabetes range.
RESULTS: Age-standardized incidence increased by 20% from 15.2 per 1,000 persons in 2015 to 18.2 per 1,000 in 2024, while prevalence increased by 25% from 11% in 2015 to 14% in 2024. These increases were observed in both sexes. Incidence and prevalence were higher in socioeconomically disadvantaged and urban communities.
CONCLUSIONS: Prediabetes incidence and prevalence increased substantially in Ontario between 2015 and 2024, with a disproportionate burden in lower socioeconomic and urban communities, underscoring the need for targeted prevention and screening strategies.