The chemotherapy of onchocerciasis. XII. The prediction of microfilarial loads in patients with onchocerciasis after treatment with diethylcarbamazine in northern Ghana.

This paper presents some statistical problems of analysing changes in patterns of microfilarial loads in onchocerciasis patients after chemotherapeutic treatment. Analyses are made of a pooled set of data from ten separate studies of diethylcarbamazine (DEC) conducted at the Onchocerciasis Chemotherapeutic Research Centre, Tamale, between 1978 and 1983. Regression models of microfilarial load at different intervals post-treatment are fitted with initial microfilarial load, total dose of DEC, duration of treatment and age of the patient as the independent variables. Appropriate transformations of the variables are chosen by examination of plots of residuals for violations of the assumptions underlying the regression models. A dose response curve for DEC is produced.