Auditory prediction errors as individual biomarkers of schizophrenia.

Schizophrenia is a complex psychiatric disorder, typically diagnosed through symptomatic evidence collected through patient interview. We aim to develop an objective biologically-based computational tool which aids diagnosis and relies on accessible imaging technologies such as electroencephalography (EEG). To achieve this, we used machine learning techniques and a combination of paradigms designed to elicit prediction errors or Mismatch Negativity (MMN) responses. MMN, an EEG component elicited by unpredictable changes in sequences of auditory stimuli, has previously been shown to be reduced in people with schizophrenia and this is arguably one of the most reproducible neurophysiological markers of schizophrenia. EEG data were acquired from 21 patients with schizophrenia and 22 healthy controls whilst they listened to three auditory oddball paradigms comprising sequences of tones which deviated in 10% of trials from regularly occurring standard tones. Deviant tones shared the same properties as standard tones, except for one physical aspect: 1) duration - the deviant stimulus was twice the duration of the standard; 2) monaural gap - deviants had a silent interval omitted from the standard, or 3) inter-aural timing difference, which caused the deviant location to be perceived as 90° away from the standards. We used multivariate pattern analysis, a machine learning technique implemented in the Pattern Recognition for Neuroimaging Toolbox (PRoNTo) to classify images generated through statistical parametric mapping (SPM) of spatiotemporal EEG data, i.e. event-related potentials measured on the two-dimensional surface of the scalp over time. Using support vector machine (SVM) and Gaussian processes classifiers (GPC), we were able classify individual patients and controls with balanced accuracies of up to 80.48% (p-values = 0.0326, FDR corrected) and an ROC analysis yielding an AUC of 0.87. Crucially, a GP regression revealed that MMN predicted global assessment of functioning (GAF) scores (correlation = 0.73, R2 = 0.53, p = 0.0006).