Prevalence and Cure of Primary Liver Cancer in Italy by Histologic Type.
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Bucchi Lauro, Ferretti Stefano, Toffolutti Federica, Fedeli Ugo, Mancini Silvia, Zamagni Federica, Giudici Fabiola, Botta Laura, Zorzi Manuel, Bidoli Ettore, Cuccaro Francesco, Gasparotti Cinzia, Caldarella Adele, Fusco Mario, Lanzoni Monica, Migliore Enrica, Puppo Antonella, Michiara Maria, Cavallo Rossella, Ferrante Margherita, Sampietro Giuseppe, Mazzucco Walter, Cirilli Claudia, Vattiato Rosa, Stracci Fabrizio, Guarda Linda, Manzoni Federica, Mantovani William, Cascone Giuseppe, Palmonari Caterina, Targa Federica, Mangone Lucia, Galasso Rocco, Porcheddu Antonio, Pesce Maria Teresa, Bella Francesca, Seghini Pietro, Fanetti Anna Clara, Pinna Pasquala, Guzzinati Stefano, Dal Maso Luigino, On Behalf Of The Airtum Working Group
Аннотация
METHODS: Data from 31 Italian cancer registries, covering 28,057,000 residents (47% of the population), were included. The complete prevalence was calculated in 2018. The mixture-cure model was used to estimate the cure fraction (CF, proportion of newly diagnosed patients with the same life expectancy as the general population), the cure prevalence (prevalent patients who will not die as a result of cancer) and the life expectancy of fatal cases (LEF).
RESULTS: In 2018, 31,723 Italians (53 per 100,000) lived after a liver cancer diagnosis. Among them, the cure prevalence was 23.3% for HCC and 40.3% for ICC. The CF remained <10% for cases diagnosed in recent decades. Higher and rising CF rates were observed between 2005 and 2015 only among patients with HCC aged <45 years (2% of all cases), with an increase from 13% to 22% in men and from 19% to 29% in women, and among patients aged 45-54 years (8% of all cases), with an increase from 7% to 15% in men and from 11% to 19% in women. The LEF for HCC in 2015 was 29 months for both sexes, an 8-month increase since 2005.
CONCLUSIONS: No substantial advantage nor favourable trends in the CF was apparent for older patients with HCC as compared to those with ICC, with some progresses for the small age groups of <45 years. A clear-cut increase in CF of patients with HCC aged under 55 years occurred in the 2010s decade, with no changes for older patients. This was accompanied by an increase in the LEF. Although limited by a considerable proportion of liver cancers of unspecified histologic type, the cure indicators presented here may help monitor the long-term effects of therapeutic advances and of surveillance programmes for people with cirrhosis and HCV infection.