Understanding risk of poor outcomes in adults hospitalised with respiratory syncytial virus infection: evidence from a multicentre UK cohort.
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Morelli Tommaso, Purcell Martha, Panaguiton Jon, Patel Rachel, Weinberg Sharon, Hulston George, Siy-Yap Hans, Davies Emma A, Keating Anluan, Saidy Ida, Freeman Anna, Staples Karl J, Rodrigues Pedro, Jones Abigail, Allen Alexander, Bansal Aruna T, Marciniak Stefan J, Greening Neil J, Crooks Michael G, Mitchelmore Philip, Siddiqui Salman H, Myerson James, Pavitt Matthew J, Daneshvar Cyrus, Chalmers James D, Lee Paul H, Lewis Tom, Clark Tristan W, Denny Sarah, Wiseman Dexter J, Ellis Huw, Wilkinson Tom Ma, UNIVERSAL Study Group, Universal Study Group
Аннотация
METHODS: We pooled three UK hospital cohorts (one prospective, two retrospective) of adults admitted with acute respiratory infection (ARI) and PCR-confirmed RSV. The primary outcome was intensive care unit/high dependency unit (ICU/HDU) admission or all-cause mortality within 60 days. Prespecified predictors (age, sex and comorbidities) entered a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalised logistic regression; selected variables were refitted using standard logistic regression. Discrimination, calibration and decision-analytic performance were assessed using 1000-bootstrap internal validation and decision-curve analysis.
RESULTS: Among 334 adults, 37 (11.1%) experienced the primary outcome. An age-only rule mirroring current UK vaccine age-eligibility (≥75 years) demonstrated only modest discrimination (optimism-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.58, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.65) and a compressed distribution of predicted risks. A four-predictor model-including age, COPD, active/previous cancer and dementia-achieved higher discrimination AUC (0.77 (0.69 to 0.85)), a wider spread of predicted risks and the greatest net benefit across clinically plausible escalation thresholds (5-20%).
CONCLUSIONS: In adults hospitalised with RSV-associated ARI, simple age-based heuristics-including the UK ≥75-year threshold-showed only modest ability to discriminate risk of ICU/HDU admission/60-day mortality once hospitalised. Comorbidity-inclusive approaches may provide more informative hospital-level risk stratification and warrant evaluation in future RSV vaccine-effectiveness and outcome studies. Any application requires external validation, more systematic RSV testing and comparison with physiology-based scores in larger, vaccinated cohorts.