Annals of hepatology · 2016
Validation of prognostic scores for clinical outcomes in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding.
Сравнительное исследованиеСтатьяМногоцентровое исследованиеВалидационное исследованиеНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
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Motola-Kuba Miguel, Escobedo-Arzate Angélica, Tellez-Avila Félix, Altamirano José, Aguilar-Olivos Nancy, González-Angulo Alberto, Zamarripa-Dorsey Felipe, Uribe Misael, Chávez-Tapia Norberto C
Аннотация
UNLABELLED: Background. The Rockall, Glasgow-Blatchford, and AIMS65 are useful and validated scoring systems for predicting the outcomes of patients with nonvariceal gastrointestinal bleeding. However, there are no validated evidence for using them to predict outcomes on variceal bleeding. The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the prognostic accuracy of different nonvariceal bleeding scores with other liver-specific scoring systems in cirrhotic patients.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: A retrospective multicenter study that included 160 cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. The AUROC's to predict in-hospital mortality, and rebleeding, were analyzed for each scoring system.
RESULTS: Overall in-hospital mortality occurred in 13% and in-hospital rebleeding in 12% of patients. The systems with the best AUROC value for predicting mortality were MELD (0.828; 95% CI 0.748-0.909), and AIMS65 (0.817; 95% CI 0.724-0.909). The best score systems for predicting rebleeding were Glasgow-Blatchford (0.756; 95% CI 0.640- 0.827), and Rockall (0.691; 95% CI 0.580-0.802).
CONCLUSIONS: In addition to liver-specific scores, the AIMS65 score is accurate for predicting in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. Other scoring systems might be useful for predicting significant clinical outcomes in these patients.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: A retrospective multicenter study that included 160 cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. The AUROC's to predict in-hospital mortality, and rebleeding, were analyzed for each scoring system.
RESULTS: Overall in-hospital mortality occurred in 13% and in-hospital rebleeding in 12% of patients. The systems with the best AUROC value for predicting mortality were MELD (0.828; 95% CI 0.748-0.909), and AIMS65 (0.817; 95% CI 0.724-0.909). The best score systems for predicting rebleeding were Glasgow-Blatchford (0.756; 95% CI 0.640- 0.827), and Rockall (0.691; 95% CI 0.580-0.802).
CONCLUSIONS: In addition to liver-specific scores, the AIMS65 score is accurate for predicting in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. Other scoring systems might be useful for predicting significant clinical outcomes in these patients.
Предметные рубрики MeSH
AdultAgedArea Under CurveDecision Support TechniquesEsophageal and Gastric VaricesFemaleGastrointestinal HemorrhageHospital MortalityHumansLiver CirrhosisMaleMexicoMiddle AgedPredictive Value of TestsPrognosisROC CurveRecurrenceReproducibility of ResultsRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsTime Factors