Comparative analysis of trends in the burden of pancreatitis in China and worldwide, 1990-2021.

BACKGROUND

Amidst global demographic aging patterns, understanding divergent trajectories of pancreatitis burden is crucial for health equity. This study compares China's pancreatitis burden (1990-2021) against global aggregates, focusing on age-sex stratification within aging populations.

METHODS

Leveraging Global Burden of Disease 2021 datasets, we analyzed age-standardized rates (ASR) for incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs/ASDR). Joinpoint regression quantified temporal trends via average annual percentage changes (AAPC). Statistical significance was determined through 95% confidence intervals (CIs). GBD standardization protocols ensured comparability of sex-age stratified analyses.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, China witnessed significant declines in pancreatitis burden. The age-standardized rates per 100,000 population fell as follows: incidence (ASIR) from 35.35 to 23.95; prevalence (ASPR) from 35.33 to 24.15; mortality (ASMR) from 0.98 to 0.64; and DALYs (ASDR) from 29.77 to 18.27. The corresponding average annual percentage changes (AAPCs: ASIR -1.34%; ASPR -1.25%; ASMR -1.40%; ASDR -1.57%) were substantially greater than the global averages (ASIR -0.44%; ASPR -0.99%; ASMR -0.47%; ASDR -0.53%). Age and sex disparities were clear, with males having higher rates below age 65, and females bearing a greater burden thereafter.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights a marked decline in China's pancreatitis burden, linked to healthcare advances, despite persistent disparities in older populations. Moving beyond isolated descriptions of trends, our study introduces a direct comparative analysis that quantifies China's steeper decline in pancreatitis burden relative to the global average. This provides a nuanced, quantitative benchmark for evaluating the effectiveness of national health policies. These findings call for equitable policies and future work on region-specific risks and scalable interventions.