Tradeoffs between ventilation, air mixing, and passenger density for the airborne transmission risk in airport transportation vehicles.

Airport transportation vehicles, such as buses, aerotrains, and shuttles, provide important passenger transfer services in airports. This study quantitatively investigated COVID-19 aerosol infection risk and identified acceptable operational conditions, such as passenger occupancy rates and duration of rides, given the performance of vehicle ventilation. The greatest risk to the largest number of passengers is from an index case whose exhaled breath would take the longest time to exit the vehicle. The study identified such a case based on ventilation patterns, and it tracked the spread of viral aerosols (5 μm) by using the Wells-Riley equation to predict aerosol infection risk distribution. These distributions allowed a definition of an imperfect mixing degree (δ) as the ratio of actual risk and the calculated risk under a perfect mixing condition, and further derived regression equations to predict δ in the far-field (FF) and near-field (NF) of each passenger. These results revealed an order of magnitude higher aerosol infection risk in NF than in FF. For example, with a ventilation rate of 58 ACH (air changes per hour) and a 45% occupancy rate, unmasked passengers should stay up to 15 min in the bus and 35 min in the shuttle to limit infection risk in NF within 10%. These also indicate that masking is an important and effective risk reduction measure in transportation vehicles, especially important in NF. Overall, the analysis of imperfect air mixing allows direct comparison of risks in different transportation vehicles and a structured approach to development of policy recommendations.