Predictors of transitions across stages of alcohol use and disorders in an adult population with heterogeneous ethnic restrictions regarding drinking.

AIMS: To disaggregate associations with alcohol use disorder relative to those with early alcohol use stages in an adult population. We estimated prevalence rates and socio-demographic correlates for the opportunity to drink and transitions into life-time alcohol use, regular use and alcohol use disorder.

DESIGN

A retrospective, cross-sectional population survey within a family panel study.

SETTING

Chitwan in Nepal, an ethnically diverse setting with heterogeneous ethnic restrictions regarding alcohol.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 10 714 individuals aged 15-59 years (response rate = 93%).

MEASUREMENTS: The Nepal-specific Composite International Diagnostic Interview assessed life-time alcohol use opportunity, any use, regular use, disorder and socio-demographic characteristics.

FINDINGS: Seventy per cent [95% confidence interval (CI) = 69.08-70.82%] of the population had the opportunity to drink, 38.06% (95% CI = 37.14-38.99%) had life-time alcohol use, 32.37% (95% CI = 31.48-33.27%) had regular alcohol use and 6.04% (95% CI = 5.60-6.50%) developed an alcohol use disorder. Compared with high-caste Hindus, all other ethnicities had greater odds of early stage transitions [odds ratios (OR) ranged from 1.31, 95% CI = 1.16-1.47 to 1.98, 95% CI = 1.81-2.18)], but not of development of disorder. Male sex was associated with greater odds of all transitions, from opportunity (OR = 5.71, 95% CI = 5.41-6.03) to development of disorder (OR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.35-2.81). The youngest cohort had higher odds of all transitions, from opportunity (OR = 4.86, 95% CI = 4.47-5.29) to development of disorder (OR = 9.34, 95% CI = 6.88-12.70). Higher education was associated with lower odds of all transitions except opportunity [from use (OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.71-0.83) to the development of disorder (OR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.59-0.89)].

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of life-time alcohol use among adults in Nepal appears to be low, but the overall prevalence of disorder is similar to other countries. Socio-demographic correlates of early alcohol use transitions differ from those associated with later transitions; while sex and age cohort were associated with all transitions, ethnicity was associated with early transitions (opportunity, life-time use, regular use), but not later transitions (use and regular use to disorder).