Tuberculin skin test: estimation of positive and negative predictive values from routine data.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate, using routinely available data, the predictive values of tuberculin testing with 2TU RT23 for detection of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in the Dutch population as a basis for recommendations on cut-off values at various levels of infection prevalence.

DESIGN

Smoothed distributions of TST reactions among 312 tuberculosis patients and 2848 healthy non-BCG-vaccinated persons were used to estimate the sensitivity and specificity at various cut-off values.

RESULTS

Sensitivity was 98.9% at 5 mm, 95.4% at 10 mm and 79.8% at 15 mm cut-off. Specificity with the corresponding cut-offs was 95.3%, 96.3% and 97.1% before and 98.0%, 98.8% and 99.6% after adjustment for presumed LTBI. At 10 mm, the positive predictive value (PPV) was > 75% if the infection prevalence in the tested population was at least 10%, but strongly declined with lower prevalences. For lower prevalences a cut-off of 15 mm was proposed, as this results in a higher PPV without greatly affecting the negative predictive value.

CONCLUSION

Estimation of the predictive values of the TST from routine data can be useful for establishing cut-off values for detection of LTBI in different populations with different tuberculin preparations.