Canadian journal of gastroenterology & hepatology · 2021
External Validation of UDCA Response Score in Slovak and Croatian Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis.
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Gazda Jakub, Janicko Martin, Drazilova Sylvia, Grgurevic Ivica, Kanizaj Tajana Filipec, Koller Tomas, Bodorovska Beatrica, Mijic Maja, Mikolasevic Ivana, Stromar Ivana Knezevic, Kucinsky Branislav, Gazda Matej, Jarcuska Peter
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Ursodeoxycholic acid response score (URS) is a prognostic model that estimates the baseline probability of treatment response after 12 months of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) therapy in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC).
AIM: To independently evaluate the predictive performance of the URS model.
METHODS: We used a cohort of Slovak and Croatian treatment-naïve PBC patients to quantify the discrimination ability using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). Furthermore, we evaluated the calibration using calibration belts. The primary outcome was treatment response after 12 months of UDCA therapy defined as values of alkaline phosphatase ≤1.67 × upper limit of normal.
RESULTS: One hundred and ninety-four patients were included. Median pretreatment age was 56 years (interquartile range 49-62). Treatment response was achieved in 79.38% of patients. AUROC of the URS was 0.81 (95% CI 0.73-0.88) and the calibration belt revealed that response rates were correctly estimated by predicted probabilities.
CONCLUSION: Our results confirm that the URS can be used in treatment-naïve PBC patients for estimating the treatment response probability after 12 months of UDCA therapy.
AIM: To independently evaluate the predictive performance of the URS model.
METHODS: We used a cohort of Slovak and Croatian treatment-naïve PBC patients to quantify the discrimination ability using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). Furthermore, we evaluated the calibration using calibration belts. The primary outcome was treatment response after 12 months of UDCA therapy defined as values of alkaline phosphatase ≤1.67 × upper limit of normal.
RESULTS: One hundred and ninety-four patients were included. Median pretreatment age was 56 years (interquartile range 49-62). Treatment response was achieved in 79.38% of patients. AUROC of the URS was 0.81 (95% CI 0.73-0.88) and the calibration belt revealed that response rates were correctly estimated by predicted probabilities.
CONCLUSION: Our results confirm that the URS can be used in treatment-naïve PBC patients for estimating the treatment response probability after 12 months of UDCA therapy.