Identification of illicit discharges in sewer networks by an SWMM-Bayesian coupled approach.

Illicit discharges into sewer systems are a widespread concern within China's urban drainage management. They can result in unforeseen environmental contamination and deterioration in the performance of wastewater treatment plants. Consequently, pinpointing the origin of unauthorized discharges in the sewer network is crucial. This study aims to evaluate an integrative method that employs numerical modeling and statistical analysis to determine the locations and characteristics of illicit discharges. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was employed to track water quality variations within the sewer network and examine the concentration profiles of exogenous pollutants under a range of scenarios. The identification technique employed Bayesian inference fused with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling method, enabling the estimation of probability distributions for the position of the suspected source, the discharge magnitude, and the commencement of the event. Specifically, the cases involving continuous release and multiple sources were examined. For single-point source identification, where all three parameters are unknown, concentration profiles from two monitoring sites in the path of pollutant transport and dispersion are necessary and sufficient to characterize the pollution source. For the identification of multiple sources, the proposed SWMM-Bayesian strategy with improved sampling is applied, which significantly improves the accuracy.