Comparison of body mass index, waist circumference, conicity index, and waist-to-height ratio for predicting incidence of hypertension: the rural Chinese cohort study.

This study compared the ability of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), conicity index, and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) to predict incident hypertension and to identify the cutoffs of obesity indices for predicting hypertension in rural Chinese adults. This prospective cohort study recruited 9905 participants aged 18-70 years during a median follow-up of 6 years in rural China. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to assess the association, predictive ability, and optimal cutoffs (in terms of hypertension risk factors) of the four obesity indices: BMI, WC, conicity index, and WHtR. The 6-year cumulative incidence of hypertension was 19.89% for men and 18.68% for women, with a significant upward trend of increased incident hypertension with increasing BMI, WC, conicity index, and WHtR (P for trend < 0.001) for both men and women. BMI and WHtR had the largest area under the ROC curve for identifying hypertension for both genders. The optimal cutoff values for BMI, WC, conicity index, and WHtR for predicting hypertension were 22.65 kg/m2, 82.70 cm, 1.20, and 0.49, respectively, for men, and 23.80 kg/m2, 82.17 cm, 1.20, and 0.52, respectively, for women. BMI, WC, conicity index, and WHtR cutoffs may offer a simple and effective way to screen hypertension in rural Chinese adults. BMI and WHtR were superior to WC and conicity index for predicting incident hypertension for both genders.