Development of a nomogram for the prediction of pathological complete response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Nomograms incorporating multiple prognostic factors are useful for individualized estimation of survival in cancer patients. However, nomograms for the prediction of pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in patients with esophageal cancer are scarce. Here, we describe the development of a nomogram for predicting pCR after nCRT in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We retrospectively reviewed the records of 392 ESCC patients who underwent nCRT followed by esophagectomy. Seventy percent of the participants (n = 274) were randomly assigned to a training cohort, whereas the remaining 30% were included in a validation cohort (n = 118). Data from the training cohort were subjected to multivariate logistic regression analyses for selecting variables to be included in the nomogram. The performance of the resulting nomogram was internally and externally validated by calculating the bias-corrected concordance statistic (c-statistic) and the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. After surgery, 25.77% of the study patients achieved pCR. The following variables were included in the nomogram: (i) age, (ii) pretreatment tumor length, (iii) history of head and neck cancer, (iv) post-nCRT albumin levels, and (v) post-nCRT endoscopic findings coupled with endoscopic biopsy results. The bias-corrected c-statistic and AUROC of the internal and external validation sets were 0.77 and 0.747, respectively. Our nomogram showed a good performance for predicting pCR after nCRT in ESCC patients.