European journal of medical research · 2025
Changing trends in burden of calcific aortic valve diseases and degenerative mitral valve diseases among people aged 60-89 years from 1990 to 2030.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Li Jing, Meng Qingna, Gu Jie, Ji Chunying, Pan Xiaohong
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: The growing elderly population has increased the prevalence of nonrheumatic valvular heart diseases, such as calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) and degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD), raising major health concerns.
METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 was used to assess the global burden of CAVD and DMVD. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and joinpoint regression analyzed 30-year trends, while future trends for the next decade were projected using the Nordpred model.
RESULTS: In 2019, there were 6.9 (95% UI [5.9-8.2]) million CAVD and 15.4 (95% UI [14.6-16.3]) million DMVD cases among the elderly, representing 448% and 85% increases over 30 years, respectively. Deaths rose by 98% for CAVD and 41% for DMVD. DALYs rates dropped from 133.5 (95% UI [121.8-149.0]) to 117.3 (95% UI [104.9-129.0]) for CAVD and from 75.1 (95% UI [62.7-91.2]) to 50.8 (95% UI [42.1-64.8]) for DMVD between 1990 and 2019. Males carried a higher CAVD burden, while females were more affected by DMVD. By 2030, CAVD prevalence is projected to reach 166.1 million, deaths 2.7 million, and DALYs 37.5 million. DMVD cases will increase to 422 million, deaths 751,000, and DALYs 16.3 million.
CONCLUSIONS: CAVD and DMVD are major contributors to the disease burden in the elderly. Gender, age, and SDI differences highlight the need for tailored prevention strategies, as projections indicate a rising burden through 2030. This study provides critical data to guide global prevention and control efforts.
METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 was used to assess the global burden of CAVD and DMVD. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and joinpoint regression analyzed 30-year trends, while future trends for the next decade were projected using the Nordpred model.
RESULTS: In 2019, there were 6.9 (95% UI [5.9-8.2]) million CAVD and 15.4 (95% UI [14.6-16.3]) million DMVD cases among the elderly, representing 448% and 85% increases over 30 years, respectively. Deaths rose by 98% for CAVD and 41% for DMVD. DALYs rates dropped from 133.5 (95% UI [121.8-149.0]) to 117.3 (95% UI [104.9-129.0]) for CAVD and from 75.1 (95% UI [62.7-91.2]) to 50.8 (95% UI [42.1-64.8]) for DMVD between 1990 and 2019. Males carried a higher CAVD burden, while females were more affected by DMVD. By 2030, CAVD prevalence is projected to reach 166.1 million, deaths 2.7 million, and DALYs 37.5 million. DMVD cases will increase to 422 million, deaths 751,000, and DALYs 16.3 million.
CONCLUSIONS: CAVD and DMVD are major contributors to the disease burden in the elderly. Gender, age, and SDI differences highlight the need for tailored prevention strategies, as projections indicate a rising burden through 2030. This study provides critical data to guide global prevention and control efforts.