Evaluating predictive modeling's potential to improve teleretinal screening participation in urban safety net clinics.

INTRODUCTION: Screening guidelines for diabetic patients recommend yearly eye examinations to detect diabetic retinopathy and other forms of diabetic eye disease. However, annual screening rates for retinopathy in US urban safety net settings remain low.

METHODS: Using data gathered from a study of teleretinal screening in six urban safety net clinics, we assessed whether predictive modeling could be of value in identifying patients at risk of developing retinopathy. We developed and examined the accuracy of two predictive modeling approaches for diabetic retinopathy in a sample of 513 diabetic individuals, using routinely available clinical variables from retrospective medical record reviews. Bayesian networks and radial basis function (neural) networks were learned using ten-fold cross-validation.

RESULTS: The predictive models were modestly predictive with the best model having an AUC of 0.71.

DISCUSSION: Using routinely available clinical variables to predict patients at risk of developing retinopathy and to target them for annual eye screenings may be of some usefulness to safety net clinics.