Trends and Projections of Alzheimer's Disease and Other Dementias in East Asia: Three Decades of Epidemiological Analysis (1990-2023) with Forecasts to 2050.

The burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADOD) in East Asia remains understudied. Using Global Burden of Disease 2023 data, we analyzed age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), calculated average annual percentage change (AAPC) via Joinpoint regression, and forecasted trends to 2050 using the ARIMA model. In 2023, ASRs for prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs were 906.49, 154.64, 28.83, and 538.71 per 100,000, respectively. Burden peaked at ages 80-84 and was higher in females. By 2050, incidence and prevalence are projected to rise to 175.84 and 1,036.46 per 100,000, mortality will remain stable, whereas DALYs show a mild downward trend. High fasting plasma glucose was the leading risk factor; females were more susceptible to high body mass index, males to smoking. These three modifiable risk factors were the top contributors to the ADOD burden in East Asia and were therefore the focus of this analysis. Targeted interventions addressing glucose control, smoking cessation, and weight management are urgently needed, alongside enhanced screening and care for high-risk populations.