Frontiers in oncology · 2026
The rising burden of male genitourinary cancers in middle- and high-income countries.
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Song Wenfu, Li Yingying, Wang Zhilei, You Yaodong, Yexin Zhou, Wu Xinhui, Zhang Jingyi, Tang Jianyuan, Chen Diang, Chang Degui, Huang Ju
Аннотация
INTRODUCTION: Male genitourinary cancers (prostate, bladder, kidney, and testicular) represent a major cancer burden in middle- and high-income countries (MHIC). We aimed to characterize their distribution and trends across 174 countries using the 2023 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database.
METHODS: This study presented the incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates for four male genitourinary cancers by age and location from 1990 to 2023. Average annual percent changes (AAPCs) and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) models were utilized to quantify temporal dynamics and project trends to 2050.
RESULTS: In 2023, an estimated 2.16 million new cases and 0.73 million deaths were attributed to male genitourinary cancers in MHIC. From 1990 to 2023, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) increased for PCa, KCa, and TCa across all income groups. However, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) exhibited divergent trends: declining significantly in high-income countries (HC) while remaining stable or increasing in lower-middle-income countries (LMC). Smoking remained the predominant risk factor, though metabolic factors (high BMI, hyperglycemia) demonstrated increasingly prominent population-attributable fractions in wealthier nations. Projections to 2050 suggest a growing burden in LMC and upper-middle-income countries (UMC).
CONCLUSION: The marked increase in ASIRs in wealthier nations partially reflects superior diagnostic capacity (e.g., PSA screening) rather than exclusively a true increase in disease burden. The divergence between rising incidence and persistently high mortality in LMC highlights the urgent need for tailored, resource-stratified public health strategies.
METHODS: This study presented the incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates for four male genitourinary cancers by age and location from 1990 to 2023. Average annual percent changes (AAPCs) and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) models were utilized to quantify temporal dynamics and project trends to 2050.
RESULTS: In 2023, an estimated 2.16 million new cases and 0.73 million deaths were attributed to male genitourinary cancers in MHIC. From 1990 to 2023, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) increased for PCa, KCa, and TCa across all income groups. However, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) exhibited divergent trends: declining significantly in high-income countries (HC) while remaining stable or increasing in lower-middle-income countries (LMC). Smoking remained the predominant risk factor, though metabolic factors (high BMI, hyperglycemia) demonstrated increasingly prominent population-attributable fractions in wealthier nations. Projections to 2050 suggest a growing burden in LMC and upper-middle-income countries (UMC).
CONCLUSION: The marked increase in ASIRs in wealthier nations partially reflects superior diagnostic capacity (e.g., PSA screening) rather than exclusively a true increase in disease burden. The divergence between rising incidence and persistently high mortality in LMC highlights the urgent need for tailored, resource-stratified public health strategies.