Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity is an independent predictor of incident hypertension in Japanese normotensive male subjects.

OBJECTIVES

Cardiovascular morbidity and mortality are closely associated with hypertension, however, predictors of incident hypertension have not been fully established. We have conducted a study aimed at evaluating whether brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is a predictor of incident hypertension.

METHODS

The relation between baPWV, a noninvasive index of aortic stiffness, and incident hypertension was evaluated in a cohort of 2278 Japanese normotensive male subjects with a follow-up of 3 years.

RESULTS

Of the 2278 study participants, 151 (6.6%) had incident hypertension during the follow-up. After adjustment for variables, including age, gender, body mass index (BMI), smoking habit, alcohol consumption, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, family history of hypertension, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, and fasting plasma glucose, multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that baPWV was a significant and independent predictor of incident hypertension with an adjusted odds ratio 1.45 (95% confidence interval 1.17-1.79, P < 0.01). In addition, baPWV values >1380 cm/s indicated a high risk for incident hypertension.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the Japanese normotensive male subjects participating in this study, BaPWV was a significant and independent predictor of incident hypertension. This result suggests that BaPWV could be a useful screening method to identify normotensive individuals who should be targeted for interventions aimed at preventing the incident hypertension.