[Predictive factors of recurrent hemorrhage in duodenal ulcer: report of 208 cases].

The aim of this study was to evaluate clinical, biological and endoscopic predictive factors of recurrent bleeding. Two hundred and eight patients (169 males/39 females) with a bleeding from duodenal ulcers, confirmed by an endoscopy, were included in a retrospective study performed over 3 years. Forrest classification was used to describe endoscopic stigmata of bleeding. Those who are Forrest la and lb were directly operated. Twenty two patients (10,5%) had rebled. Based on bivariate analysis, the predictive factors of recurrent bleeding were the site of ulcer, a shock at admission, ulcer size D 2.0 cm and the presence of stigmata of bleeding (Forrest II) p<0,05. Only endoscopic stigmata of bleeding and shock were predictive factors of recurrent bleeding in multivariate analysis. Mortality with 2.4% of rate, was strongly linked with recurrent bleeding in elderly and ill people.