Poor late prognosis of bleeding peptic ulcer.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Long-term course of peptic ulcer bleeding is unclear. Because of a more aged and more diseased ulcer population, the long-term prognosis may be expected as poor.

MATERIALS AND

METHODS

In a prospective study, all patients with peptic ulcer bleeding treated at the Department of Surgery of the Heinrich-Heine-University in Düsseldorf were included between 1986 and 1995. Follow-up covered hospital mortality, 1-month mortality, 1-year mortality, and 5-years mortality. Significant prognostic parameters for death were investigated in univariate and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

One hundred and seventy-one out of 192 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding could be followed up. One-month mortality was similar to hospital mortality with 12.3%, 1-year mortality was 28.7%, and the 5-years mortality was 46.8%! In univariate analysis, statistically significant prognostic factors for death were ages beyond 70 years, concomitant diseases, risk-related drugs, postinterventional complications, and recurrent bleeding. In multivariate analysis, age, postinterventional complications, and type of admission were statistically significant parameters for death.

CONCLUSION

Long-term prognosis of peptic ulcer bleeding is poor! The majority of deaths after hospital stay is probably not because of ulcer bleeding, but because of more aged patients with severe concomitant diseases.