International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2025
Alzheimer's and Other Dementias Attributable to Hyperglycaemia and High BMI Worldwide, 1990-2021: GBD 2021 Cross-sectional Analysis and ARIMA Forecasts.
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Chang Luyuan, Liu Xinyu, Wu Huan, Yan Jiaqi, Chen Nuo, Li Haipeng, Wu Wenzong, Chen Juan, Zhang Jing
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Against the backdrop of the accelerating global aging population, the burden on society and families caused by Alzheimer's disease, namely AD and non-AD cognitive disorders, is continuously increasing.
METHOD: This article uses the 2021 Global Burden of Disease dataset to comprehensively examine how hyperglycemia and elevated body mass index (BMI) have caused global mortality, disability-adjusted life years(DALYs), years of life lost(YLLs), and years of life with disability(YLDs) related to AD and other types of dementia from 1990 to 2021. For the results obtained from the analysis, this paper classifies them by gender, age and sociodemographic index(SDI), and presents the classified results. Subsequently, this paper also uses the ARIMA model to predict the future development trend of the burden of dementia caused by high blood sugar and high BMI from 2022 to 2050.
RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the dementia burden attributable to hyperglycemia increased, with DALYs rising by 3,907,314 (EAPC,2.14), deaths by 218,561 (EAPC,2.31), YLDs by 124,780 (EAPC,2.09), and YLLs by 2,682,533 (EAPC,2.16). High BMI showed similar increases, with DALYs rising by 2,020,996 (EAPC,2.32), deaths by 107,862 (EAPC,2.35), YLDs by 634,949 (EAPC,2.28), and YLLs by 1,386,047 (EAPC,2.34). Growth was greatest among women, among adults aged 80 years and older, and in regions with low and middle SDI. ARIMA forecasts for 2022 to 2050 indicate continued increases, identifying older adults, particularly women, as priority groups for prevention and control.
CONCLUSION: This study shows that the implementation of hierarchical and precise prevention and control strategies for metabolism related dementia, the establishment of a dynamic monitoring system based on age threshold, and the development of a risk prediction model suitable for resource poor areas will effectively delay the growth trend of dementia incidence.
METHOD: This article uses the 2021 Global Burden of Disease dataset to comprehensively examine how hyperglycemia and elevated body mass index (BMI) have caused global mortality, disability-adjusted life years(DALYs), years of life lost(YLLs), and years of life with disability(YLDs) related to AD and other types of dementia from 1990 to 2021. For the results obtained from the analysis, this paper classifies them by gender, age and sociodemographic index(SDI), and presents the classified results. Subsequently, this paper also uses the ARIMA model to predict the future development trend of the burden of dementia caused by high blood sugar and high BMI from 2022 to 2050.
RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the dementia burden attributable to hyperglycemia increased, with DALYs rising by 3,907,314 (EAPC,2.14), deaths by 218,561 (EAPC,2.31), YLDs by 124,780 (EAPC,2.09), and YLLs by 2,682,533 (EAPC,2.16). High BMI showed similar increases, with DALYs rising by 2,020,996 (EAPC,2.32), deaths by 107,862 (EAPC,2.35), YLDs by 634,949 (EAPC,2.28), and YLLs by 1,386,047 (EAPC,2.34). Growth was greatest among women, among adults aged 80 years and older, and in regions with low and middle SDI. ARIMA forecasts for 2022 to 2050 indicate continued increases, identifying older adults, particularly women, as priority groups for prevention and control.
CONCLUSION: This study shows that the implementation of hierarchical and precise prevention and control strategies for metabolism related dementia, the establishment of a dynamic monitoring system based on age threshold, and the development of a risk prediction model suitable for resource poor areas will effectively delay the growth trend of dementia incidence.